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Analysis of the 2024 USA Presidential Election State Polls

Overview

This project analyzes the 2024 USA Presididential Election polling data, available from https://electoral-vote.com/. To date, there doesn'tm seem to be much in the way of polling data compared to other years.

The ppolls2024 executable will create directories and files as needed on-the-fly. Make sure that the standard Go $HOME/go/bin directory is in the $PATH. Similar advice for Windows users (you would know better than me).

Free advice regarding poll data: Do not bother looking at national poll data. It would make more sense if the national popular vote determined the leader; see https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/national-popular-vote-explained. But, that is not the way the US Presidential elections currently work. I shall say no more on this subject!

Installation

git clone https://github.com/texadactyl/ppolls2024/
cd ppolls2024
go install ./...

The first time you run go install, you will probably be warned to go get other modules. Do that. Then, continue.

go install ./...

Invocation from a terminal window command-line

cd ppolls2024
ppolls2024 -h # Get help.
ppolls2024 -f # Fetch the latest poll data.
ppolls2024 -l # Load the database with the downloaded data.
ppolls2024 -r tx # Get detailed report for Texas. The string "TX" is also acceptable.
ppolls2024 -r ec # Get summary report for all states. The string "EC" is also acceptable.
                 # Note that upshifting of the -r parameter value is performed automatically.
ppolls2024 -r ec -b # Ditto but for only the battleground states per the configuration file.
ppolls2024 -p # Get plots for all states.

Configuration

When ppolls2024 begins execution, its current configuration parameters are displayed. For example the following is a sample display of console messages for ppolls2024 -l:

2024/07/02 09:30:34 GetConfig: ECVAlgorithm: 2
2024/07/02 09:30:34 GetConfig: Battleground states: AZ,GA,MI,NH,NV,PA,VA,WI
2024/07/02 09:30:34 GetConfig: PlotWidth: 10.000000
2024/07/02 09:30:34 GetConfig: PlotHeight: 10.000000
2024/07/02 09:30:34 GetConfig: PollHistoryLimit: 3
2024/07/02 09:30:34 GetConfig: TossupThreshold: 3.010000

The configuration file config.yaml holds the current parameter values and comments as to the meaning of each parameter.
Be cautious when editing!

Fetch Messages

The first time poll data is fetched from the Internet, the following is displayed:
Fetch: No previous poll data.

If the Internet poll data has changed with respect to the local copy, the following is displayed:
Fetch: Internet poll data has changed.

If the the Internet poll data and the local poll data are still the same, the following is displayed:
Fetch: Internet poll data has not changed. Nothing to do.

Licensing

This is NOT commercial software; instead, usage is covered by the GNU General Public License version 3 (2007). In a nutshell, please feel free to use the project and share it as you will but please don'tm sell it. Thank you!

See the LICENSE file for the GNU licensing information.

Feel free to create an issue record for any questions, bugs, or enhancement requests. I'll respond as soon as I can.

Richard Elkins

Dallas, Texas, USA, 3rd Rock, Sol, ...

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2024 USA Presidential Poll Collection and Analysis

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