v8255920_Fothergill_James_Covid-19_Simulation.nlogo

; Agent-based modeling of Covid-19 virus transmission using Netlogo
; Author: James Fothergill
; Student-ID v8255920
; Teesside University



turtles-own [ ;; Turtle characteristics
  virus?  ;; has virus [ true / false ]
  dead ;; is alive [true/false]
  immune ;; is immune [true/false]
  virus_duration ;; how long our agent already has a virus

]

globals[


]

to setup ;; this procedure sets up the simulation for start
  clear-all

  create-turtles number_people [ setxy random-xcor random-ycor  ;;setting up position of turtles
    set virus? false set shape "person" set dead false set immune false set virus_duration 0] ;; set turtle variables and shape to person

  ask one-of turtles [set virus? true] ;; one gets infected
  ask turtles [recolor] ;; all turtles are blue except single turtle with virus

    reset-ticks

 ;;set vaccinated  (number_people * vaccination-deployment) / 100


end

to go ;; each tick of simulation turtle do this

  if all? turtles [virus?] [stop] ;; if everyone is dead it stops
  if all? turtles [virus? = false] [stop] ;; if no one has the virus it is dead and simulation stops

  ask turtles [ move]
  ask turtles [ spread]
  ask turtles [ recover]
  ask turtles [ recolor]
  ask turtles [vaccinate]

  tick

end

to move
  if dead = false
  [
  right random 150
  left random 150

  fd 1
  ]
end



to recover ;; if our agent has virus they can recover under probability and after some virus_duration but they have also chance to die
  if virus?[
    set virus_duration virus_duration + 1
    if random-float 1.0 < recover_probability and virus_duration > 14 [ ;; chance to recover
      set virus? false
      set immune true
    ]
    if random-float 1.0 < death_probability and virus_duration > 10 [ ;; chance to die
        set dead true
      ]
  ]
end

to vaccinated-people ;; the vaccinated are immune and show as green for one day before turning yellow
  set virus? false
  set immune true
  set color green
end

to vaccinate
    if not immune and not virus? [
    if random-float 100 < vaccination-deployment [ vaccinated-people] ;; setting up those not immune or infected to get the vaccine
  ]
end

to spread ;; Turtle-Turtle interaction
  ifelse virus? [][
  if any? other turtles-here with [virus?]
    [
      if immune = false
      [set virus? true
        if contact-tracing [ask self [create-links-from other turtles-here with [virus?] ] ] ;; contact tracing
      ] ;; checking if there is virus in agent, if yes then set virus to true
    ]
  ]
end

to recolor;; recolors agent based on their virus? state {red - infected, blue - not infected, black - dead}
  ifelse virus? [set color red] [ set color blue]
  if immune [set color yellow]
  if dead [ set color black]

end
@#$#@#$#@
GRAPHICS-WINDOW
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BUTTON
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Setup
setup
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T
OBSERVER
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Start/Stop
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SLIDER
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Viral Spread
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"" ""
PENS
"With Virus" 1.0 0 -2674135 true "" "plot count turtles with [virus?]"
"Immune" 1.0 0 -1184463 true "" "plot count turtles with [color = yellow or color = green]"
"Dead" 1.0 0 -16777216 true "" "plot count turtles with [dead]"

MONITOR
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People Dead
count turtles with [dead]
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SWITCH
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contact-tracing
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MONITOR
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Immune
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MONITOR
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Days
ticks
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MONITOR
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People Alive
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SLIDER
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vaccination-deployment
vaccination-deployment
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3.0
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MONITOR
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Infected
count turtles with [virus?]
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TEXTBOX
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Covid-19 Transmission and Immunity Simulation
30
25.0
1

@#$#@#$#@
## WHAT IS IT?

This project is a simulation of the Covid-19 pandemic and vaccination program.

## HOW IT WORKS

Red agents = are infected with covid
Blue agents = are the standard agents
Green agents = Have been vaccinated
Yellow agents = are immune

The red agents can infect blue agents. If the agent survives 14 days they have a chance to recover and become immune.  Green are vaccinated agents will turn yellow and can't be infected.


## HOW TO USE IT

Click Setup to prime the simulation and Start/Stop to begin the simulation
vaccination-deployment - set to 0 is off and will simulate heard immunity. Set to 1-3 will increase the number of vaccinated people.

Contact tracing will show which person infected who by leaving a tracing line between them. The default is off.

recover_probability is set to 95 to simulate the recovery rate from Covid-19 in first world countries by healthy, young adults. This can be adjusted as needed.

death_probability is set to 0.9 which is the level quoted by the ONS. This can be adjusted.

number_people sets the number of people in the simulation.  

Days = How many days have passed

People Dead = Number of people who have died from the virus

People Alive = Current number of people alive

Immune = The number of people who became immune during the simulation

Virus Spread shows Dead, Immune and those with the virus

## THINGS TO NOTICE

Vaccinated will become immune (yellow) over time

## THINGS TO TRY

Changing vaccine deployment, recovery and death to mach countries around the world.

## EXTENDING THE MODEL

It would be good to have survival rate by age. To add a lockdown switch and several types of vaccine with protection rates

## NETLOGO FEATURES

While infected, people have a chance to die within 10 days or recover within 14

## RELATED MODELS


## CREDITS AND REFERENCES
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@#$#@#$#@
NetLogo 6.3.0
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